LAUSR

Abstract. The predictability of the sea surface height expression of baroclinic tides is examined with 96 h forecasts produced by the AMSEAS operational forecast model during 2013–2014. The phase-locked tide, both barotropic and baroclinic, is identified by harmonic analysis of the 2-year record and found to agree well with observations from tide gauges and satellite altimetry within the Caribbean Sea. The non-phase-locked baroclinic tide, which is created by time-variable mesoscale stratification and currents, may be identified from residual sea level anomalies (SLAs) near the tidal frequencies. The predictability of the non-phase-locked tide is assessed by measuring the difference between a forecast – centered at T+36, T+60, or T+84 h – and the model's later verifying analysis for the same time. Within the Caribbean Sea, where a baroclinic tidal sea level range of ±5 cm is typical, the forecast error for the non-phase-locked tidal SLA is correlated with the forecast error for the subtidal (mesoscale) SLA. Root mean square values of the former range from 0.5 to 2 cm, while the latter ranges from 1 to 6 cm, for a typical 84 h forecast. The spatial and temporal variability of the forecast error is related to the dynamical origins of the non-phase-locked tide and is briefly surveyed within the model.