LAUSR

Introduction The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Controlling Childhood Asthma and Reducing Emergencies initiative aims to prevent 500,000 emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations within 5 years among children with asthma through implementation of evidence-based interventions and policies. Methods are needed for calculating the anticipated effects of planned asthma programs and the estimated effects of existing asthma programs. We describe and illustrate a method of using results from randomized control trials (RCTs) to estimate changes in rates of adverse asthma events (AAEs) that result from expanding access to asthma interventions. Methods We use counterfactual arguments to justify a formula for the expected number of AAEs prevented by a given intervention. This formula employs a current rate of AAEs, a measure of the increase in access to the intervention, and the rate ratio estimated in an RCT. Results We justified a formula for estimating the effect of expanding access to asthma interventions. For example, if 20% of patients with asthma in a community with 20,540 annual asthma-related ED visits were offered asthma self-management education, ED visits would decrease by an estimated 1,643; and annual hospitalizations would decrease from 2,639 to 617. Conclusion Our method draws on the best available evidence from RCTs to estimate effects on rates of AAEs in the community of interest that result from expanding access to asthma interventions.