LAUSR

Background WHO estimates that seasonal influenza epidemics result in three to five million cases of severe illness (hospitalisations) every year. We aimed to improve the understanding of influenza-associated hospitalisation estimates at a national and global level. Methods We performed a systematic literature review of English- and Chinese-language studies published between 1995 and 2020 estimating influenza-associated hospitalisation. We included a total of 127 studies (seven in Chinese) in the meta-analysis and analyzed their data using a logit-logistic regression model to understand the influence of five study factors and produce national and global estimates by age groups. The five study factors assessed were: 1) the method used to calculate the influenza-associated hospitalisation estimates (rate- or time series regression-based), 2) the outcome measure (divided into three envelopes: narrow, medium, or wide), 3) whether every case was laboratory-confirmed or not, 4) whether the estimates were national or sub-national, 5) whether the rates were based on a single year or multiple years. Results The overall pooled influenza-associated hospitalisation rate was 40.5 (95% confidence interval (CI) = 24.3-67.4) per 100 000 persons, with rates varying substantially by age: 224.0 (95% CI = 118.8-420.0) in children aged 0-4 years and 96.8 (95% CI = 57.0-164.3) in the elderly aged >65 years. The overall pooled hospitalisation rates varied by calculation method; for all ages, the rates were significantly higher when they were based on rate-based methods or calculated on a single season and significantly lower when cases were laboratory-confirmed. The national hospitalisation rates (all ages) varied considerably, ranging from 11.7 (95% CI = 3.8-36.3) per 100 000 in New Zealand to 122.1 (95% CI = 41.5-358.4) per 100 000 in India (all age estimates). Conclusions Using the pooled global influenza-associated hospitalisation rate, we estimate that seasonal influenza epidemics result in 3.2 million cases of severe illness (hospitalisations) per annum. More extensive analyses are required to assess the influence of other factors on the estimates (e.g. vaccination and dominant virus (sub)types) and efforts to harmonize the methods should be encouraged. Our study highlights the high rates of influenza-associated hospitalisations in children aged 0-4 years and the elderly aged 65+ years.