Adolescents' base rate judgments, metastrategic understanding, and stereotype endorsement.
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Journal of experimental child psychology"
DOI: 10.1016/j.jecp.2018.09.014
Abstract: Developmental reversals are counterintuitive age trends wherein age is negatively related to optimal responding. We addressed the claims that reversals in judgments and decisions are unlikely between late childhood and adolescence. Children and adolescents indicated… read more here.
Keywords: age related; age; evidence; stereotypical problems ... See more keywords
Estimating the anomaly base rate
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Journal of Financial Economics"
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2020.12.003
Abstract: Abstract The anomaly zoo has caused many to question whether researchers are using the right tests of statistical significance. But even if researchers are using the right tests, they will still draw the wrong conclusions… read more here.
Keywords: estimating anomaly; anomaly base; base rate;
On No-Miracles and the Base-Rate Fallacy
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2023 at "Philosophy of Science"
DOI: 10.1017/psa.2023.80
Abstract: Howson (2000) contends that the No-Miracles argument fails as an argument in support of scientific realism because it commits the base-rate fallacy. Psillos (2009) has defended the argument by appealing to cases that involve conditional… read more here.
Keywords: rate fallacy; base; argument; base rate ... See more keywords
Statistically inaccurate and morally unfair judgements via base rate intrusion
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Nature Human Behaviour"
DOI: 10.1038/s41562-017-0218-y
Abstract: From a statistical standpoint, judgements about an individual are more accurate if base rates about the individual’s social group are taken into account1–4. But from a moral standpoint, using these base rates is considered unfair… read more here.
Keywords: rate intrusion; base rate; base; base rates ... See more keywords
Base rate of ovarian cancer on algorithms in patients with a pelvic mass
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "International Journal of Gynecological Cancer"
DOI: 10.1136/ijgc-2020-001416
Abstract: Objective Algorithms have been developed to identify ovarian cancer in women with a pelvic mass. The aim of this study was to determine how the base rates of ovarian cancer influence the case finding abilities… read more here.
Keywords: cancer; base rate; ovarian cancer; algorithms ... See more keywords
The influence of conflict monitoring on meta-reasoning and response times in a base rate task
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Quarterly Journal of Experimental Psychology"
DOI: 10.1177/1747021817746924
Abstract: We examined the role of conflict monitoring processes in forming metacognitive judgements of confidence while performing base rate tasks. Recently proposed models of dual-process reasoning, as well as research, have shown that conflict detection might… read more here.
Keywords: base rate; conflict monitoring; rate; response ... See more keywords
Base Rate Neglect as a Source of Inaccurate Statistical Discrimination
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2025 at "Management Science"
DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2023.00603
Abstract: Statistical discrimination relies on people inferring unobservable characteristics of group members based on their beliefs about the group. Across four preregistered experiments (N = 9,002), we show that accurate information about the composition of top… read more here.
Keywords: information; discrimination; top performers; statistical discrimination ... See more keywords
Integrate instead of ignoring: Base rate neglect as a common fallacy of petroleum explorers
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "AAPG Bulletin"
DOI: 10.1306/0327171622817003
Abstract: When petroleum explorers estimate geological probability of success (POS) and success case volumes for their prospects, they commonly suffer from various biases and fallacies that result in poor assessments. Using a data set of 25… read more here.
Keywords: rate neglect; exploration; base; base rate ... See more keywords
The effects of base rate neglect on sequential belief updating and real-world beliefs
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2022 at "PLOS Computational Biology"
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pcbi.1010796
Abstract: Base-rate neglect is a pervasive bias in judgment that is conceptualized as underweighting of prior information and can have serious consequences in real-world scenarios. This bias is thought to reflect variability in inferential processes but… read more here.
Keywords: rate neglect; real world; base rate;
When Success Is Not Enough: The Symptom Base-Rate Can Influence Judgments of Effectiveness of a Successful Treatment
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Frontiers in Psychology"
DOI: 10.3389/fpsyg.2020.560273
Abstract: Patients’ beliefs about the effectiveness of their treatments are key to the success of any intervention. However, since these beliefs are usually formed by sequentially accumulating evidence in the form of the covariation between the… read more here.
Keywords: symptom base; base rate; judgments effectiveness; treatment ... See more keywords
Conflict Detection in Moderate Base-Rate Tasks: A Multi-Measure Study
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2023 at "Behavioral Sciences"
DOI: 10.3390/bs13040319
Abstract: Empirical studies have found that although humans often rely on heuristic intuition to make stereotypical judgments during extreme base-rate tasks, they can at least detect conflicts between stereotypical and base-rate responses, which supports the dual-processing… read more here.
Keywords: conflict detection; detection; base rate;