Accounting for the business cycle reduces the estimated losses from systemic banking crises
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Empirical Economics"
DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1424-9
Abstract: We re-estimate the effects of systemic banking crises in industrialised countries reported by Cerra and Saxena (Am Econ Rev 98(1):439–457, 2008) with a model that includes transitory business cycle shocks. We use the correlation between… read more here.
Keywords: banking crises; business; business cycle; systemic banking ... See more keywords
Business cycle dating and forecasting with real-time Swiss GDP data
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Empirical Economics"
DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01666-9
Abstract: We develop a small-scale dynamic factor model for the Swiss economy allowing for nonlinearities by means of a two-state Markov chain. The selection of an appropriate set of indicators utilizes a combinatorial algorithm. The model’s… read more here.
Keywords: cycle dating; gdp; dating forecasting; business ... See more keywords
Business Cycle Desynchronisation: Amplitude and Beta vs. Co-movement
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Intereconomics"
DOI: 10.1007/s10272-017-0681-8
Abstract: A high degree of correlation among the business cycles of individual countries is usually seen as a key criterion for an optimum currency area. However, the elasticity with which countries react to the common cycle… read more here.
Keywords: cycle desynchronisation; cycle; desynchronisation amplitude; business ... See more keywords
Structural Changes in the Duration of Bull Markets and Business Cycle Dynamics
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Asia-Pacific Financial Markets"
DOI: 10.1007/s10690-020-09324-2
Abstract: This paper tests for structural changes in the duration of bull regimes in 18 developed and emerging economies’ adjusted market capitalization stock indexes, by using the novel approach of Nicolau (Econ Lett 146:64–67, 2016) as… read more here.
Keywords: structural changes; bull; duration bull; changes duration ... See more keywords
Business cycle synchronization: is it affected by inflation targeting credibility?
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "SERIEs"
DOI: 10.1007/s13209-019-00206-z
Abstract: We empirically study the impact of inflation targeting credibility on business cycle synchronization with G-7 economies. To do this, we use a sample of 15 inflation targeting countries to develop and calculate a reputation-based credibility… read more here.
Keywords: inflation targeting; targeting credibility; credibility; cycle synchronization ... See more keywords
Firms’ rational expectations, workers’ psychology, and monetary policy in a behavioral real business cycle model
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Economic Analysis and Policy"
DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2017.01.003
Abstract: This paper is based on cognitive psychology’s view of “curvilinear” optimism–pessimism and hence, contains a flavor of behavioral macroeconomics. The substructure of a real overlapping-generations business cycle model is assumed to be underlined by the… read more here.
Keywords: policy; business cycle; cycle model; psychology ... See more keywords
Dynamic connectedness among monetary policy cycle, financial cycle and business cycle in China
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Economic Analysis and Policy"
DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2021.01.014
Abstract: Abstract This study explores the cyclical features and the dynamic spillovers among monetary policy cycle, financial cycles (including credit, housing and stock market cycles) and business cycle in China during 1998–2018. We find that the… read more here.
Keywords: cycle; monetary policy; among monetary; policy ... See more keywords
The role of expenditure duration in fiscal multipliers over the business cycle
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Economics Letters"
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2020.109660
Abstract: Abstract Projects funded by the Department of Transportation that are authorized to begin construction during periods of slack are completed more quickly than during expansions. The results suggest fiscal multipliers of authorized funds may vary… read more here.
Keywords: fiscal multipliers; expenditure duration; role expenditure; business cycle ... See more keywords
The business cycle implications of bank discrimination in China
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Economic Modelling"
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2018.04.003
Abstract: Abstract Banks in China favor state-owned enterprises (SOEs) and discriminate against privately owned enterprises (POEs) in credit allocation. This paper explores the business cycle implications of bank discrimination in an estimated two-sector model. We model… read more here.
Keywords: cycle implications; implications bank; bank discrimination; bank ... See more keywords
Business cycle synchronization: Disentangling direct and indirect effect of financial integration in the Indian context
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Economic Modelling"
DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.10.010
Abstract: Abstract The study empirically investigates the effect of financial integration (FI) on business cycle synchronization (BCS) in the Indian context. Using concordance index, dynamic conditional correlation, and 3SLS, we find: (1) India's business cycle is… read more here.
Keywords: effect; effect financial; synchronization; business cycle ... See more keywords
Systematic errors in growth expectations over the business cycle
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "International Journal of Forecasting"
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.03.003
Abstract: Abstract We document the fact that the growth forecasts made by professional forecasters in advanced economies exhibit systematic errors, and analyze how these errors depend on the business cycle state. On average over our full… read more here.
Keywords: growth; systematic errors; business cycle; errors growth ... See more keywords