Implementation and calibration of a stochastic multicloud convective parameterization in the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFSv2)
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems"
DOI: 10.1002/2017ms001014
Abstract: A comparative analysis of 14 5-year long climate simulations produced by the National Centres for Environmental Predictions (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), in which a stochastic multicloud (SMCM) cumulus parameterization is implemented, is… read more here.
Keywords: climate; forecast system; climate forecast; stochastic multicloud ... See more keywords
Evaluation of energy fluxes in the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2)
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Climate Dynamics"
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3587-z
Abstract: The energy fluxes at the surface and top of the atmosphere (TOA) from a long free run by the NCEP climate forecast system version 2.0 (CFSv2) are validated against several observation and reanalysis datasets. This… read more here.
Keywords: cfsv2; energy; energy fluxes; forecast system ... See more keywords
Diagnosing Errors in Climate Forecast Models Using Forced Autoregressive Models
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2025 at "Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems"
DOI: 10.1029/2024ms004926
Abstract: Climate models initialized near the observed state typically drift toward their own climatology as the forecast evolves. This drift is commonly corrected through a lead‐time and start‐month dependent bias adjustment, derived from a hindcast data… read more here.
Keywords: climate forecast; diagnosing errors; forecast; autoregressive models ... See more keywords
Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Nature Communications"
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23771-z
Abstract: Assessments of climate forecast skill depend on choices made by the assessor. In this perspective, we use forecasts of the El Niño-Southern-Oscillation to outline the impact of bias-correction on skill. Many assessments of skill from… read more here.
Keywords: forecast skill; standard assessments; climate forecast; skill ... See more keywords
Application of the NMME in the Development of a New Regional Seasonal Climate Forecast Tool
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society"
DOI: 10.1175/bams-d-15-00107.1
Abstract: ABSTRACTThe National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC) provides access to a suite of real-time monthly climate forecasts that compose the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) in an attempt to meet the increasing… read more here.
Keywords: climate; tool; climate forecast; seasonal climate ... See more keywords
Assessing Decision Timing and Seasonal Climate Forecast Needs of Winter Wheat Producers in the South-Central United States
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology"
DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-17-0246.1
Abstract: AbstractAgricultural decision-making that adapts to climate variability is essential to global food security. Crop production can be severely impacted by drought, flood, and heat, as seen in recent... read more here.
Keywords: decision; timing seasonal; climate forecast; seasonal climate ... See more keywords
On the Challenge for ENSO Cycle Prediction: An Example from NCEP Climate Forecast System, Version 2
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Journal of Climate"
DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-18-0285.1
Abstract: This work demonstrates the influence of the initial amplitude of the sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) following its evolutionary phase on the forecast skill of ENSO in retrospective predictions… read more here.
Keywords: phase; climate forecast; prediction; enso cycle ... See more keywords
Did the Climate Forecast System Anticipate the 2015 Caribbean Drought
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Journal of Hydrometeorology"
DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-19-0284.1
Abstract: AbstractIn groundwater-limited settings, such as Puerto Rico and other Caribbean islands, societal, ecological, and agricultural water needs depend on regular rainfall. Though long-range numerical ... read more here.
Keywords: 2015 caribbean; anticipate 2015; system anticipate; forecast system ... See more keywords
Evaluation of the NCEP Climate Forecast System and Its Downscaling for Seasonal Rainfall Prediction over Vietnam
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Weather and Forecasting"
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-17-0098.1
Abstract: AbstractThis study investigates the ability to apply National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System (CFS) products and their downscaling by using the Regional Climate Model version 4.2 (RegCM4.2) on seasonal rainfall forecasts over… read more here.
Keywords: cfs; climate forecast; seasonal rainfall; rainfall ... See more keywords