Process Evaluation of Subseasonal North Atlantic Oscillation Prediction in the ECMWF Ensemble Forecast System
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2024 at "Geophysical Research Letters"
DOI: 10.1029/2024gl111291
Abstract: This study evaluates the prediction skill of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) pattern and its associated energy budget as simulated by the European Center for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts ensemble forecast system. By classifying NAO events… read more here.
Keywords: skill; north atlantic; prediction; ensemble forecast ... See more keywords
On Evaluation of Ensemble Forecast Calibration Using the Concept of Data Depth
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Monthly Weather Review"
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-16-0351.1
Abstract: AbstractVarious generalizations of the univariate rank histogram have been proposed to inspect the reliability of an ensemble forecast or analysis in multidimensional spaces. Multivariate rank histograms provide insightful information about the misspecification of genuinely multivariate… read more here.
Keywords: data depth; multivariate rank; concept data; ensemble forecast ... See more keywords
Assessments of Surface Winds and Waves from the NCEP Ensemble Forecast System
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Weather and Forecasting"
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-18-0086.1
Abstract: The error characteristics of surface waves and winds produced by ensemble forecasts issued by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction are analyzed as a function of forecast range and severity. Eight error metrics are compared,… read more here.
Keywords: forecast system; winds waves; surface winds; forecast ... See more keywords
Utilizing the High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast System to Produce Calibrated Probabilistic Thunderstorm Guidance
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2022 at "Weather and Forecasting"
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-22-0001.1
Abstract: The High-Resolution Ensemble Forecast system (HREF) Calibrated Thunder guidance is a suite of probabilistic forecast products designed to predict the likelihood of at least one cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning flash within 20 km (12 miles) of… read more here.
Keywords: forecast; ensemble forecast; forecast system; guidance ... See more keywords
Predictability of Severe Convective Storm Environments in Global Ensemble Forecast System Version 12 Reforecasts
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2024 at "Weather and Forecasting"
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-24-0004.1
Abstract: Prediction of severe convective storms at timescales of 2–4 weeks is of interest to forecasters and stakeholders due to their impacts to life and property. Prediction of severe convective storms on this timescale is challenging,… read more here.
Keywords: severe convective; convective storms; ensemble forecast; predictability ... See more keywords
Improving Ensemble Precipitation and Streamflow Forecasts for Large Events with the Conditional Bias-Penalized Regression-Aided Meteorological Ensemble Forecast Processor
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2025 at "Weather and Forecasting"
DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-24-0142.1
Abstract: This work aims at improving the accuracy of ensemble precipitation forecasts for large events (return period of 20 years or larger for 24-hr precipitation) generated from the GEFS ensemble mean forecast in support of the… read more here.
Keywords: streamflow; forecast; precipitation; ensemble precipitation ... See more keywords
Advances in Flood Early Warning: Ensemble Forecast, Information Dissemination and Decision-Support Systems
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Hydrology"
DOI: 10.3390/hydrology7030056
Abstract: Floods are usually highly destructive, which may cause enormous losses to lives and property. It is, therefore, important and necessary to develop effective flood early warning systems and disseminate the information to the public through… read more here.
Keywords: early warning; flood early; information; ensemble forecast ... See more keywords