Operational statistical postprocessing of temperature ensemble forecasts with station‐specific predictors
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Meteorological Applications"
DOI: 10.1002/met.1971
Abstract: A proper account for forecast uncertainty is crucial in operational weather services and weather‐related decision‐making. Ensemble forecasts provide such information. However, they may be biased and tend to be under‐dispersive. Therefore, ensemble forecasts need to… read more here.
Keywords: lead times; calibration; specific predictors; station specific ... See more keywords
On assessing calibration of multivariate ensemble forecasts
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society"
DOI: 10.1002/qj.2906
Abstract: A necessary condition for optimal use in decision making of probability forecasts in general, and ensemble forecasts in particular, is that they should be calibrated. Ensemble calibration implies that each observation is statistically indistinguishable from… read more here.
Keywords: miscalibration; multivariate ensemble; assessing calibration; multivariate ... See more keywords
Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Neural Computing and Applications"
DOI: 10.1007/s00521-020-05139-4
Abstract: Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC; however, these forecasts are… read more here.
Keywords: total cloud; machine learning; forecast skill; ensemble forecasts ... See more keywords
Deep Learning‐Based Ensemble Forecasts and Predictability Assessments for Surface Ozone Pollution
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2023 at "Geophysical Research Letters"
DOI: 10.1029/2022gl102611
Abstract: The impacts of weather forecast uncertainties have not been quantified in current air quality forecasting systems. To address this, we developed an efficient 2‐D convolutional neural network‐surface ozone ensemble forecast (2DCNN‐SOEF) system using 2‐D convolutional… read more here.
Keywords: surface ozone; forecast; pollution; 2dcnn soef ... See more keywords
Simulation of Polarimetric Radar Variables from 2013 CAPS Spring Experiment Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts and Evaluation of Microphysics Schemes
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Monthly Weather Review"
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-15-0415.1
Abstract: AbstractPolarimetric radar variables are simulated from members of the 2013 Center for Analysis and Prediction of Storms (CAPS) Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts (SSEF) with varying microphysics (MP) schemes and compared with observations. The polarimetric variables provide… read more here.
Keywords: radar; microphysics schemes; ensemble forecasts; scale ensemble ... See more keywords
Constraining Ensemble Forecasts of Discrete Convective Initiation with Surface Observations
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DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-16-0395.1
Abstract: AbstractPredicting when and where individual convective storms will develop remains an elusive challenge. Previous studies have suggested that surface observations can capture convective-scale features relevant to the convective initiation (CI) process, and new surface observing… read more here.
Keywords: surface observations; surface; convective initiation; ensemble forecasts ... See more keywords
Sample Stratification in Verification of Ensemble Forecasts of Continuous Scalar Variables: Potential Benefits and Pitfalls
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Monthly Weather Review"
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-16-0487.1
Abstract: AbstractIn the verification field, stratification is the process of dividing the sample of forecast–observation pairs into quasi-homogeneous subsets, in order to learn more on how forecasts behave under specific conditions. A general framework for stratification… read more here.
Keywords: stratification; forecasts continuous; scalar variables; continuous scalar ... See more keywords
Use of Ensemble Forecasts to Investigate Synoptic Influences on the Structural Evolution and Predictability of Hurricane Alex (2016) in the Midlatitudes
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Monthly Weather Review"
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-18-0015.1
Abstract: AbstractHurricane Alex was an extremely rare hurricane event, the first North Atlantic hurricane to form in January since 1938. Alex developed from an extratropical low pressure system that formed ... read more here.
Keywords: use ensemble; forecasts investigate; synoptic influences; ensemble forecasts ... See more keywords
Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts of Precipitation Based on an Object-Based Diagnostic Evaluation
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DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-19-0266.1
Abstract: AbstractWe analyzed 24-h accumulated precipitation forecasts over the 4-month period from 1 May to 31 August 2013 over an area located in East Asia covering the region 15.05°–58.95°N, 70.15°–139.95... read more here.
Keywords: multimodel ensemble; based object; precipitation; ensemble forecasts ... See more keywords
The Impact of Assimilating ZDR Observations on Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts of the 31 May 2013 Oklahoma Storm Event
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Monthly Weather Review"
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-20-0261.1
Abstract: Assimilation of dual-polarization (dual-pol) observations provides more accurate storm-scale analyses to initialize forecasts of severe convective thunderstorms. This study investigates the impact assimilating experimental sector-scan dual-pol observations has on storm-scale ensemble forecasts and how this… read more here.
Keywords: storm; storm scale; ensemble forecasts; impact assimilating ... See more keywords
Verification of Multimodel Ensemble Forecasts of North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones
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DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-17-0058.1
Abstract: AbstractNorth Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) forecasts from four ensemble prediction systems (EPSs) are verified using the National Hurricane Center’s (NHC) best tracks for the 2008–15 seasons. The 1–5-day forecasts are evaluated for the 21-member National… read more here.
Keywords: north atlantic; multimodel ensemble; verification multimodel; atlantic tropical ... See more keywords