Ensemble Averaging and the Curse of Dimensionality
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DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-17-0197.1
Abstract: AbstractWhen comparing climate models to observations it is often observed that the mean over many models has smaller errors than most or all of the individual models. We will show that a general consequence of… read more here.
Keywords: high dimensional; averaging curse; ensemble averaging; ensemble mean ... See more keywords
Improving Atmospheric Models by Accounting for Chaotic Physics
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DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-22-0880.1
Abstract: It is well known that randomly perturbing an atmospheric model’s diabatic tendencies can increase its probabilistic forecast skill, mainly by increasing the spread of ensemble forecasts and making it more consistent with the errors of… read more here.
Keywords: forecast; atmospheric models; physics; ensemble mean ... See more keywords
Evaluation and Benchmarking of Operational Short-Range Ensemble Mean and Median Streamflow Forecasts for the Ohio River Basin
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DOI: 10.1175/jhm-d-18-0102.1
Abstract: AbstractThis study presents findings from a real-time forecast experiment that compares legacy deterministic hydrologic stage forecasts to ensemble mean and median stage forecasts from the NOAA/NWS... read more here.
Keywords: benchmarking operational; ensemble mean; short range; evaluation benchmarking ... See more keywords