Assessing probabilistic predictions of ENSO phase and intensity from the North American Multimodel Ensemble
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DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3721-y
Abstract: Here we examine the skill of three, five, and seven-category monthly ENSO probability forecasts (1982–2015) from single and multi-model ensemble integrations of the North American Multimodel Ensemble (NMME) project. Three-category forecasts are typical and provide… read more here.
Keywords: multimodel ensemble; american multimodel; north american; enso phase ... See more keywords
A global analysis of austral summer ocean wave variability during SAM–ENSO phase combinations
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DOI: 10.1007/s00382-020-05217-2
Abstract: Anticipating and mitigating wave-related hazards rely heavily on understanding wave variability drivers. Here, we describe wave conditions related to concurrent Southern Annular Mode (SAM) and El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phases during the austral summer. To… read more here.
Keywords: sam enso; enso phase; wave variability; sam ... See more keywords
The Impact of ENSO Phase Transition on the Atmospheric Circulation, Precipitation and Temperature in the Middle East Autumn
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DOI: 10.1007/s13143-019-00149-2
Abstract: The impact of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase transition on the atmospheric circulations, precipitation and temperature in the Middle East (ME) during the period of 1950–2018 autumn seasons were analyzed. ENSO events were selected based… read more here.
Keywords: phase transition; precipitation; precipitation temperature; enso phase ... See more keywords
ENSO Normals: A New U.S. Climate Normals Product Conditioned by ENSO Phase and Intensity and Accounting for Secular Trends
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DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-18-0252.1
Abstract: Climate normals are traditionally calculated every decade as the average values over a period of time, often 30 years. Such an approach assumes a stationary climate, with several alternatives recently introduced to account for monotonic… read more here.
Keywords: climate normals; enso normals; phase intensity; climate ... See more keywords
Fundamental Behavior of ENSO Phase Locking
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DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-19-0264.1
Abstract: AbstractEl Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events tend to peak at the end of the calendar year, a phenomenon called ENSO phase locking. This phase locking is a fundamental ENSO property that is de... read more here.
Keywords: locking fundamental; phase; phase locking; fundamental behavior ... See more keywords
Synoptic–Dynamic Patterns Affecting Iran’s Autumn Precipitation during ENSO Phase Transitions
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DOI: 10.3390/cli9070106
Abstract: We compared the effect on autumn (October, November, December) precipitation over Iran during two types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phase transitions from the perspective of anomalies in wave activity flux and sea level pressure… read more here.
Keywords: precipitation; phase transitions; type transitions; enso phase ... See more keywords