Likelihood-based representation of epistemic uncertainty and its application in robustness-based design optimization
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization"
DOI: 10.1007/s00158-017-1684-6
Abstract: In this paper, we propose a new likelihood-based methodology to represent epistemic uncertainty described by sparse point and/or interval data for input variables in uncertainty analysis and design optimization problems. A worst-case maximum likelihood-based approach… read more here.
Keywords: likelihood based; design optimization; epistemic uncertainty; uncertainty ... See more keywords
Conservative reliability index for epistemic uncertainty in reliability-based design optimization
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Structural and Multidisciplinary Optimization"
DOI: 10.1007/s00158-018-1903-9
Abstract: In this paper, a simple but efficient concept of epistemic reliability index (ERI) is introduced for sampling uncertainty in input random variables under conditions where the input variables are independent Gaussian, and samples are unbiased.… read more here.
Keywords: reliability index; uncertainty; epistemic uncertainty; optimization ... See more keywords
Application of dynamic evidential networks in reliability analysis of complex systems with epistemic uncertainty and multiple life distributions
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2022 at "Annals of Operations Research"
DOI: 10.1007/s10479-019-03211-4
Abstract: With the modernization and intelligent of industrial equipment and systems, the challenges of dynamic characteristics, failure dependency and uncertainties have aroused by the increasing of system complexity. Besides, various types of components may follow different… read more here.
Keywords: multiple life; life; life distributions; epistemic uncertainty ... See more keywords
Robust design optimization of a photovoltaic-battery-heat pump system with thermal storage under aleatory and epistemic uncertainty
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Energy"
DOI: 10.1016/j.energy.2021.120692
Abstract: Abstract Combining photovoltaic arrays with batteries, heat pumps and thermal storage further decarbonizes the heating sector. When evaluating the performance of such systems, the parameters are either fixed, or based on generic ranges, or characterized… read more here.
Keywords: photovoltaic battery; epistemic uncertainty; uncertainty; heat ... See more keywords
Evaluation of the variability contribution due to epistemic uncertainty on constitutive models in the definition of fragility curves of RC frames
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Engineering Structures"
DOI: 10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.03.064
Abstract: Abstract In the framework of uncertainty propagation in seismic analyses, most of the research efforts were devoted to quantifying and reducing uncertainties related to seismic input. However, also uncertainties associated to the definition of constitutive… read more here.
Keywords: fragility curves; constitutive models; uncertainty; epistemic uncertainty ... See more keywords
Comparison of methodologies for seismic fragility analysis of unreinforced masonry buildings considering epistemic uncertainty
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Engineering Structures"
DOI: 10.1016/j.engstruct.2019.110059
Abstract: Abstract The first-order second-moment (FOSM), Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), and Monte Carlo simulation (MC) methods were applied to perform seismic fragility analyses of unreinforced masonry (URM) buildings, incorporating incremental dynamic analysis (IDA). The epistemic uncertainty… read more here.
Keywords: uncertainty; analysis; epistemic uncertainty; seismic fragility ... See more keywords
Epistemic uncertainty in Bayesian predictive probabilities.
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2023 at "Journal of biopharmaceutical statistics"
DOI: 10.1080/10543406.2023.2204943
Abstract: Bayesian predictive probabilities have become a ubiquitous tool for design and monitoring of clinical trials. The typical procedure is to average predictive probabilities over the prior or posterior distributions. In this paper, we highlight the… read more here.
Keywords: predictive probabilities; epistemic uncertainty; uncertainty bayesian; bayesian predictive ... See more keywords
Disclosing the Uncertainty Associated with Prognostic Estimates in Breast Cancer
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DOI: 10.1177/0272989x16670639
Abstract: Background. Treatment decision making is often guided by evidence-based probabilities, which may be presented to patients during consultations. These probabilities are intrinsically imperfect and embody 2 types of uncertainties: aleatory uncertainty arising from the unpredictability… read more here.
Keywords: uncertainty; epistemic uncertainty; aleatory uncertainty; breast cancer ... See more keywords
A suite of ground motion prediction equations for cumulative absolute velocity in shallow crustal earthquakes including epistemic uncertainty
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Earthquake Spectra"
DOI: 10.1177/8755293020957342
Abstract: Recent research has highlighted the usefulness of cumulative absolute velocity ( CAV ) in several contexts, including using the CAV at the ground surface for earthquake early warning and using the CAV at rock reference… read more here.
Keywords: epistemic uncertainty; ground motion; motion prediction;
Known unknowns and unknown unknowns in suicide risk assessment: evidence from meta-analyses of aleatory and epistemic uncertainty
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "BJPsych Bulletin"
DOI: 10.1192/pb.bp.116.054940
Abstract: Suicide risk assessment aims to reduce uncertainty in order to focus treatment and supervision on those who are judged to be more likely to die by suicide. In this article we consider recent meta-analytic research… read more here.
Keywords: risk assessment; epistemic uncertainty; uncertainty; suicide risk ... See more keywords
Improvement of the Quantification of Epistemic Uncertainty Using Single‐Station Ground‐Motion Prediction Equations
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America"
DOI: 10.1785/0120180044
Abstract: The results of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) are sensitive to the standard deviation of the residuals of the ground‐motion prediction equations (GMPEs), especially for long‐return periods. Recent studies have proven that the epistemic uncertainty… read more here.
Keywords: station; motion; ground; epistemic uncertainty ... See more keywords