Role of Ocean Initial Conditions to Diminish Dry Bias in the Seasonal Prediction of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall: A Case Study Using Climate Forecast System
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DOI: 10.1002/2017ms001129
Abstract: Coupled models tend to underestimate Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall over most of the Indian subcontinent. Present study demonstrates that a part of dry bias is arising from the discrepancies in Oceanic Initial Conditions (OICs).… read more here.
Keywords: summer monsoon; monsoon; dry bias; forecast ... See more keywords
Probability forecasts with observation error: what should be forecast?
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DOI: 10.1002/met.1626
Abstract: When probability forecasts are made of a binary event, a commonly used measure for assessing the forecasts is the Brier score. One of its properties is that it is proper, meaning that its expected value… read more here.
Keywords: observation; probability; error; probability forecasts ... See more keywords
An ensemble forecast of semi‐arid rainfall using large‐scale climate predictors
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DOI: 10.1002/met.1635
Abstract: A case study examining ensemble forecasts of semi-arid seasonal precipitation is presented. The focus is on computing an appropriate correlation between large-scale climate predictors and seasonal precipitation over a long-term forecast period (1967–2009) for a… read more here.
Keywords: large scale; semi arid; precipitation; scale climate ... See more keywords
Improvement of the 24 hr forecast of surface UV radiation using an ensemble approach
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DOI: 10.1002/met.1865
Abstract: A methodology is proposed to improve the 24 hr forecast of the ultraviolet (UV) index and the duration of exposure to obtain the minimal erythemal dose (MED). A forecast ensemble consisting of 10 members (differing in… read more here.
Keywords: forecast; member; forecast surface; ensemble member ... See more keywords
A comparison of statistical and dynamical downscaling methods for short‐term weather forecasts in the US Northeast
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DOI: 10.1002/met.1976
Abstract: The Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) was used to produce both 9 and 3 km resolution ensemble forecasts from the deterministic Global Forecast System (GFS) model for microclimatic, agricultural regions in New York State. The… read more here.
Keywords: processed wrf; forecast; wrf; weather ... See more keywords
Statistical extended-range forecast of winter surface air temperature and extremely cold days over China
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DOI: 10.1002/qj.3023
Abstract: An extremely cold day (ECD) in boreal winter over China is often accompanied by freezing rainfall or snow, leading to power outages, paralysed traffic and damaged ecosystems. Extended-range (5–30 days lead) forecast of Chinese winter… read more here.
Keywords: days lead; winter; extended range; extremely cold ... See more keywords
Hourly 4D‐Var in the Met Office UKV operational forecast model
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DOI: 10.1002/qj.3737
Abstract: Hourly cycling four‐dimensional variational data assimilation (4D‐Var) was implemented operationally in the Met Office's convective‐scale UKV forecast model in July 2017, replacing the previous three‐hourly cycling three‐dimensional 3D‐Var scheme. The new system was based on… read more here.
Keywords: system; hourly var; met office; forecast ... See more keywords
Impact of model upgrades on diabatic processes in extratropical cyclones and downstream forecast evolution
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DOI: 10.1002/qj.3739
Abstract: Models are continuously developed at numerical weather prediction (NWP) centres to improve forecast skill, with new operational model configurations adopted every few years. The parameterisations of diabatic processes are probably the most frequently updated part… read more here.
Keywords: impact model; diabatic processes; model; forecast ... See more keywords
Beyond skill scores: exploring sub‐seasonal forecast value through a case‐study of French month‐ahead energy prediction
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DOI: 10.1002/qj.3863
Abstract: We quantify the value of sub‐seasonal forecasts for a real‐world prediction problem: the forecasting of French month‐ahead energy demand. Using surface temperature as a predictor, we construct a trading strategy and assess the financial value… read more here.
Keywords: energy; french month; skill; forecast ... See more keywords
Evaluation of adjoint‐based observation impacts as a function of forecast length using an Observing System Simulation Experiment
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DOI: 10.1002/qj.3909
Abstract: Adjoints of numerical weather prediction models may be employed for forecast sensitivity to observations (FSO) in order to monitor the contribution of ingested observation data on short‐term forecast skill. However, the calculation of short‐term forecast… read more here.
Keywords: observation; forecast; verification; observing system ... See more keywords
Evaluation of an experimental Warn‐on‐Forecast 3DVAR analysis and forecast system on quasi‐real‐time short‐term forecasts of high‐impact weather events
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DOI: 10.1002/qj.4168
Abstract: The purpose of this study is to demonstrate the capability of an experimental, weather‐adaptive, high‐resolution, deterministic Warn‐on‐Forecast (WoF) analysis and forecast system (WoF3DVAR‐AFS) for predicting high‐impact severe weather events that occurred during the Hazardous Weather… read more here.
Keywords: warn forecast; system; forecast; analysis forecast ... See more keywords