Preface to the special issue on the “Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters” (FEMD)
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DOI: 10.1007/s00376-016-6007-0
Abstract: Meteorological disasters usually exert huge impacts on the development of both human society and the economy. According to statistics from the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction, the annual mean economic loss caused by… read more here.
Keywords: special issue; forecast evaluation; evaluation meteorological; meteorological disasters ... See more keywords
Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "International Journal of Forecasting"
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2017.05.001
Abstract: In this paper, we show that when computing standard Diebold-Mariano-type tests for equal forecast accuracy and forecast encompassing, the long-run variance can frequently be negative when dealing with multi-step-ahead predictions in small, but empirically relevant,… read more here.
Keywords: evaluation tests; forecast evaluation; long run; run variance ... See more keywords