Optimal non-negative forecast reconciliation
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DOI: 10.1007/s11222-020-09930-0
Abstract: The sum of forecasts of disaggregated time series is often required to equal the forecast of the aggregate, giving a set of coherent forecasts. The least squares solution for finding coherent forecasts uses a reconciliation… read more here.
Keywords: algorithm; reconciliation; coherent forecasts; non negative ... See more keywords
Online forecast reconciliation in wind power prediction
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DOI: 10.1016/j.epsr.2020.106637
Abstract: Abstract Increasing digitization of the electric power sector allows to further rethink forecasting problems that are crucial input to decision-making. Among other modern challenges, ensuring coherency of forecasts among various agents and at various aggregation… read more here.
Keywords: reconciliation wind; reconciliation; power; online forecast ... See more keywords
Forecast reconciliation: A geometric view with new insights on bias correction
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.06.004
Abstract: Abstract A geometric interpretation is developed for so-called reconciliation methodologies used to forecast time series that adhere to known linear constraints. In particular, a general framework is established that nests many existing popular reconciliation methods… read more here.
Keywords: reconciliation geometric; reconciliation; forecast; bias correction ... See more keywords
Reconciling solar forecasts: Geographical hierarchy
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DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2017.02.010
Abstract: Abstract To integrate solar energy into the electricity grid reliably and efficiently, different forecasting techniques are used to produce forecasts at various forecast horizons using data of different levels of aggregation. For example, power generated… read more here.
Keywords: base forecasts; reconciliation; hierarchy; geographical hierarchy ... See more keywords