Evaluation of NMME temperature and precipitation bias and forecast skill for South Asia
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Climate Dynamics"
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-3841-4
Abstract: Systematic error and forecast skill for temperature and precipitation in two regions of Southern Asia are investigated using hindcasts initialized May 1 from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble. We focus on two contiguous but geographically… read more here.
Keywords: forecast skill; temperature precipitation; climatology; skill ... See more keywords
Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: a skill-persistence rule
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Climate Dynamics"
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-017-4040-z
Abstract: This study investigates the factors relationship between the forecast skills for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model… read more here.
Keywords: forecast skill; model; skill persistence; skill ... See more keywords
Machine learning for total cloud cover prediction
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Neural Computing and Applications"
DOI: 10.1007/s00521-020-05139-4
Abstract: Accurate and reliable forecasting of total cloud cover (TCC) is vital for many areas such as astronomy, energy demand and production, or agriculture. Most meteorological centres issue ensemble forecasts of TCC; however, these forecasts are… read more here.
Keywords: total cloud; machine learning; forecast skill; ensemble forecasts ... See more keywords
Comparison of extended medium-range forecast skill between KMA ensemble, ocean coupled ensemble, and GloSea5
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences"
DOI: 10.1007/s13143-017-0035-2
Abstract: This article describes a three way inter-comparison of forecast skill on an extended medium-range time scale using the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) operational ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems (i.e., atmosphere-only global ensemble prediction system… read more here.
Keywords: extended medium; medium range; system; forecast skill ... See more keywords
Medium-Range Forecast Skill for Extraordinary Arctic Cyclones in Summer of 2008-2016
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Geophysical Research Letters"
DOI: 10.1029/2018gl077278
Abstract: Arctic cyclones (ACs) are a severe atmospheric phenomenon that affects the Arctic environment. This study assesses the forecast skill of five leading operational medium-range ensemble forecasts for 10 extraordinary ACs that occurred in summer during… read more here.
Keywords: medium range; arctic cyclones; extraordinary acs; skill extraordinary ... See more keywords
Diagnosing Secular Variations in Retrospective ENSO Seasonal Forecast Skill Using CMIP5 Model‐Analogs
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Geophysical Research Letters"
DOI: 10.1029/2018gl080598
Abstract: Retrospective tropical Indo‐Pacific forecasts for 1961–2015 are made using 28 models from the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) plus four models from the North American Multi‐Model Ensemble (NMME), using a model‐analog… read more here.
Keywords: model analog; forecast skill; diagnosing secular; model ... See more keywords
Relating CMIP5 Model Biases to Seasonal Forecast Skill in the Tropical Pacific
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Geophysical Research Letters"
DOI: 10.1029/2019gl086765
Abstract: We examine links between tropical Pacific mean state biases and El Niño/Southern Oscillation forecast skill, using model‐analog hindcasts of sea surface temperature (SST; 1961–2015) and precipitation (1979–2015) at leads of 0–12 months, generated by 28… read more here.
Keywords: forecast skill; model; tropical pacific; cmip5 model ... See more keywords
Benchmark decadal forecast skill for terrestrial water storage estimated by an elasticity framework
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DOI: 10.1038/s41467-019-09245-3
Abstract: A reliable decadal prediction of terrestrial water storage (TWS) is critical for a sustainable management of freshwater resources and infrastructures. However, the dependence of TWS forecast skill on the accuracy of initial hydrological conditions and… read more here.
Keywords: forecast skill; climate; skill; benchmark ... See more keywords
Standard assessments of climate forecast skill can be misleading
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Nature Communications"
DOI: 10.1038/s41467-021-23771-z
Abstract: Assessments of climate forecast skill depend on choices made by the assessor. In this perspective, we use forecasts of the El Niño-Southern-Oscillation to outline the impact of bias-correction on skill. Many assessments of skill from… read more here.
Keywords: forecast skill; standard assessments; climate forecast; skill ... See more keywords
A Climatological Comparison of the Arctic Environment and Arctic Cyclones between Periods of Low and High Forecast Skill of the Synoptic-Scale Flow
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2023 at "Monthly Weather Review"
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-22-0318.1
Abstract: The prediction of weather conditions in the Arctic is important to human activities in the Arctic. Arctic cyclones (ACs), which are extratropical cyclones that originate within the Arctic or move into the Arctic from lower… read more here.
Keywords: skill synoptic; forecast; skill; forecast skill ... See more keywords
Benchmarking an operational hydrological model for providing seasonal forecasts in Sweden
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Hydrology and Earth System Sciences"
DOI: 10.5194/hess-25-1189-2021
Abstract: Abstract. Probabilistic seasonal forecasts are important for many water-intensive activities requiring long-term planning. Among the different techniques used for seasonal forecasting, the ensemble streamflow prediction (ESP) approach has long been employed due to the singular… read more here.
Keywords: forecast skill; benchmarking operational; hydrological model; operational hydrological ... See more keywords