Geopolitical Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence
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DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2055
Abstract: Extending research by the authors on intelligence forecasting, the forecasting skill of 3622 geopolitical forecasts extracted from strategic intelligence reports was examined. The codable subset of forecasts (N = 2013) was expressed with verbal probabilities (e.g., likely)… read more here.
Keywords: strategic intelligence; forecasting skill; skill; skill strategic ... See more keywords
Forecasting price delay and future stock returns: The role of corporate social responsibility
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DOI: 10.1002/for.2600
Abstract: This paper investigates the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance in forecasting companys' stock prices and future returns. The forecasting analysis identifies a negative association between CSR performance and proxies of price delay. The… read more here.
Keywords: role; forecasting; csr; price ... See more keywords
What matters when developing oil price volatility forecasting frameworks
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DOI: 10.1002/for.2815
Abstract: Forecasting oil price volatility is considered of major importance for numerous stakeholders, including, policy makers, industries and investors. This paper examines and evaluates the main factors that oil price volatility forecasters should take before constructing… read more here.
Keywords: price volatility; oil price; volatility; forecasting ... See more keywords
Forecasting agricultures security indices: Evidence from transformers method
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DOI: 10.1002/for.3113
Abstract: In recent years, ensuring food security has become a global concern, necessitating accurate forecasting of agriculture security to aid in policymaking and resource allocation. This article proposes the utilization of transformers, a powerful deep learning… read more here.
Keywords: security indices; agricultures security; forecasting; agriculture security ... See more keywords
Structure‐Enhanced Graph Learning Approach for Traffic Flow and Density Forecasting
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DOI: 10.1002/for.70012
Abstract: The rapid expansion of Internet infrastructure and artificial intelligence (AI) has significantly advanced intelligent transportation systems (ITS), which are considered as essential for automating traffic monitoring and management in smart cities. Among ITS applications, traffic… read more here.
Keywords: enhanced graph; forecasting; flow density; traffic flow ... See more keywords
An Automatic System for Pest Recognition and Forecasting.
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DOI: 10.1002/ps.6684
Abstract: BACKGROUND Pests cause significant damage to agricultural crops and reduce the crop yields. Using manual pest forecasting methods for integrated pest management is a labor intensive and time-consuming process. Here, we present an automatic system… read more here.
Keywords: system pest; system; large fields; automatic system ... See more keywords
Comparison of Recurrent Neural Networks for Wind Power Forecasting
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-49076-8_3
Abstract: Integrating wind power to the electrical grid is complicated due to the stochastic nature of the wind, which makes its prediction a challenging task. Then, it is important to devise forecasting tools to support this… read more here.
Keywords: network; esn lstm; comparison recurrent; power ... See more keywords
The usefulness of the median CPI in Bayesian VARs used for macroeconomic forecasting and policy
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1472-1
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the forecasting performance of the median Consumer Price Index (CPI) in a variety of Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs) that are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of… read more here.
Keywords: policy; forecasting; median cpi; cpi ... See more keywords
Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy: the simpler the better?
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01788-0
Abstract: We consider the problem of macroeconomic forecasting for China. Our objective is to determine whether well-established forecasting models that are commonly used to compute forecasts for Western macroeconomies are also useful for China. Our study… read more here.
Keywords: simpler better; macroeconomy simpler; forecasting models; models chinese ... See more keywords
Attention-enhanced LSTM modeling for improved temperature and rainfall forecasting in Bangladesh
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DOI: 10.1007/s00704-025-05858-5
Abstract: Accurate climate forecasting is vital for Bangladesh, a region highly susceptible to climate change impacts on temperature and rainfall. Existing models often struggle to capture long-range dependencies and complex temporal patterns in climate data. This… read more here.
Keywords: temperature; climate; temperature rainfall; forecasting ... See more keywords
VAEneu: a new avenue for VAE application on probabilistic forecasting
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DOI: 10.1007/s10489-024-06203-5
Abstract: This paper introduces VAEneu, a novel autoregressive method for multistep ahead univariate probabilistic time series forecasting, designed to address the challenges of generating sharp and well-calibrated probabilistic forecasts without assuming a specific parametric form for… read more here.
Keywords: forecasting; new avenue; probabilistic forecasting; avenue vae ... See more keywords