Geopolitical Forecasting Skill in Strategic Intelligence
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DOI: 10.1002/bdm.2055
Abstract: Extending research by the authors on intelligence forecasting, the forecasting skill of 3622 geopolitical forecasts extracted from strategic intelligence reports was examined. The codable subset of forecasts (N = 2013) was expressed with verbal probabilities (e.g., likely)… read more here.
Keywords: strategic intelligence; forecasting skill; skill; skill strategic ... See more keywords
Forecasting price delay and future stock returns: The role of corporate social responsibility
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DOI: 10.1002/for.2600
Abstract: This paper investigates the role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) performance in forecasting companys' stock prices and future returns. The forecasting analysis identifies a negative association between CSR performance and proxies of price delay. The… read more here.
Keywords: role; forecasting; csr; price ... See more keywords
What matters when developing oil price volatility forecasting frameworks
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DOI: 10.1002/for.2815
Abstract: Forecasting oil price volatility is considered of major importance for numerous stakeholders, including, policy makers, industries and investors. This paper examines and evaluates the main factors that oil price volatility forecasters should take before constructing… read more here.
Keywords: price volatility; oil price; volatility; forecasting ... See more keywords
An Automatic System for Pest Recognition and Forecasting.
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DOI: 10.1002/ps.6684
Abstract: BACKGROUND Pests cause significant damage to agricultural crops and reduce the crop yields. Using manual pest forecasting methods for integrated pest management is a labor intensive and time-consuming process. Here, we present an automatic system… read more here.
Keywords: system pest; system; large fields; automatic system ... See more keywords
Comparison of Recurrent Neural Networks for Wind Power Forecasting
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DOI: 10.1007/978-3-030-49076-8_3
Abstract: Integrating wind power to the electrical grid is complicated due to the stochastic nature of the wind, which makes its prediction a challenging task. Then, it is important to devise forecasting tools to support this… read more here.
Keywords: network; esn lstm; comparison recurrent; power ... See more keywords
The usefulness of the median CPI in Bayesian VARs used for macroeconomic forecasting and policy
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-018-1472-1
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate the forecasting performance of the median Consumer Price Index (CPI) in a variety of Bayesian Vector Autoregressions (BVARs) that are often used for monetary policy. Until now, the use of… read more here.
Keywords: policy; forecasting; median cpi; cpi ... See more keywords
Forecasting models for the Chinese macroeconomy: the simpler the better?
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DOI: 10.1007/s00181-019-01788-0
Abstract: We consider the problem of macroeconomic forecasting for China. Our objective is to determine whether well-established forecasting models that are commonly used to compute forecasts for Western macroeconomies are also useful for China. Our study… read more here.
Keywords: simpler better; macroeconomy simpler; forecasting models; models chinese ... See more keywords
Visualizing solar irradiance data in ArcGIS and forecasting based on a novel deep neural network mechanism
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DOI: 10.1007/s11042-021-11025-5
Abstract: Solar power plants are growing tremendously to manage the ever-growing demand for power production and supply in a sustainable manner. Solar irradiance forecasting, being a time series problem, can aid in the planning and design… read more here.
Keywords: irradiance; network; solar irradiance; power ... See more keywords
Real-Time Flow Forecasting in a Watershed Using Rainfall Forecasting Model and Updating Model
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02398-2
Abstract: Watershed is the basic unit for studying different hydrologic processes. Flow forecasting in a watershed is dependent upon the rainfall. The effect of erroneous rainfall prediction is a source of uncertainty in flow forecasting. In… read more here.
Keywords: time; model; flow forecasting; forecasting model ... See more keywords
Short-Term Streamflow Forecasting Using the Feature-Enhanced Regression Model
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DOI: 10.1007/s11269-019-02399-1
Abstract: Reservoir inflow forecasting is extremely important for the management of a reservoir. In practice, accurate forecasting depends on the feature learning performance. To better address this issue, this paper proposed a feature-enhanced regression model (FER),… read more here.
Keywords: feature enhanced; model; short term; forecasting ... See more keywords
Improving Artificial Neural Network Based Streamflow Forecasting Models through Data Preprocessing
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DOI: 10.1007/s12205-021-1859-y
Abstract: The real time hydrological data may contain noise, missing information and deviation from its original scale due to complex and nonlinear nature of hydrological processes. The data when used as it is in hydrological forecasting… read more here.
Keywords: improving artificial; transformed data; based streamflow; artificial neural ... See more keywords