Tales from tails: On the empirical distributions of forecasting errors and their implication to risk
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.10.004
Abstract: Abstract When evaluating the performances of time series extrapolation methods, both researchers and practitioners typically focus on the average or median performance according to some specific error metric, such as the absolute error or the… read more here.
Keywords: empirical distributions; tails empirical; tales tails; error ... See more keywords
Impact Bias or Underestimation? Outcome Specifications Predict the Direction of Affective Forecasting Errors
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DOI: 10.1037/xge0000306
Abstract: Affective forecasts are used to anticipate the hedonic impact of future events and decide which events to pursue or avoid. We propose that because affective forecasters are more sensitive to outcome specifications of events than… read more here.
Keywords: forecasting errors; outcome specifications; impact; affective forecasting ... See more keywords
A review of Zimbabwe’s macro-fiscal forecasts
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DOI: 10.1108/ajems-03-2017-0060
Abstract: Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to evaluate accuracy of macro fiscal forecasts done by Government of Zimbabwe and the spillover effects of forecasting errors over the period 2010-2015. Design/methodology/approach - In line… read more here.
Keywords: methodology; forecasting errors; macro fiscal; fiscal forecasts ... See more keywords
Energy Trading System in Microgrids With Future Forecasting and Forecasting Errors
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DOI: 10.1109/access.2018.2861993
Abstract: In this paper, we propose a periodic energy trading system model in microgrids with future forecasting and forecasting errors. In the proposed model, retailers in a microgrid can purchase (sell) energy periodically from (to) other… read more here.
Keywords: energy trading; forecasting errors; energy; trading system ... See more keywords