Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2022 at "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2113561119
Abstract: Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in… read more here.
Keywords: ensemble probabilistic; evaluation individual; probabilistic forecasts; individual ensemble ... See more keywords
Long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic: a dangerous idea
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Revista da Sociedade Brasileira de Medicina Tropical"
DOI: 10.1590/0037-8682-0481-2020
Abstract: Abstract INTRODUCTION: Mathematical models have been used to obtain long-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic. METHODS: The daily COVID-19 case count in two Brazilian states was used to show the potential limitations of long-term forecasting… read more here.
Keywords: term; forecasts covid; long term; term forecasts ... See more keywords