Welcome to the Club — On the Accuracy of Growth Forecasts for China
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Intereconomics"
DOI: 10.1007/s10272-017-0683-6
Abstract: Forecasts for the Chinese economy are often seen as unreliable. This impedes a proper assessment of the country’s course, and given that China is the world’s second-largest economy, it also has implications for international projections.… read more here.
Keywords: growth forecasts; accuracy; club accuracy; forecasts china ... See more keywords
Medium term growth forecasts: Experts vs. simple models
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "International Journal of Forecasting"
DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2019.03.004
Abstract: Abstract We compare the medium-term GDP growth forecasts generated by experts to those generated by simple models. This study analyzes a large set of forecasts that covers 48 countries from 1997 to 2016. Out-of-sample exercises… read more here.
Keywords: growth forecasts; growth; term growth; simple models ... See more keywords