Determinants of Inflation Expectations in the Euro Area
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DOI: 10.1007/s10272-022-1037-6
Abstract: Euro area inflation has been rising strongly in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, giving rise to concerns that there could be second-round effects, with higher inflation leading to higher inflation expectations, which in turn… read more here.
Keywords: determinants inflation; euro area; inflation; inflation expectations ... See more keywords
Central Bank Balance Sheet Policies and Inflation Expectations
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DOI: 10.1007/s11079-016-9426-8
Abstract: We analyse the empirical effects of credit easing and quantitative easing on inflation expectations and exchange rates. Both monetary policy strategies are summarised in measures for composition and size of the central bank balance sheet… read more here.
Keywords: sheet; size; balance sheet; inflation expectations ... See more keywords
Do inflation expectations granger cause inflation?
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Economia Politica"
DOI: 10.1007/s40888-018-0111-9
Abstract: In this paper, we investigate whether survey measures of inflation expectations in Sweden Granger cause Swedish CPI inflation. This is done by studying the precision of out-of-sample forecasts from Bayesian VAR models using a sample… read more here.
Keywords: cause inflation; granger cause; survey; inflation expectations ... See more keywords
What influences aggregate inflation expectations of households in India?
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DOI: 10.1016/j.asieco.2020.101260
Abstract: Abstract We analyse the factors influencing Indian households’ inflation expectations and draw out implications for inflation targeting. The literature finds news on inflation affecting expectations. Using quarterly data from India over 2008-2019, we find: (i)… read more here.
Keywords: policy; aggregate inflation; influences aggregate; expectations households ... See more keywords
Does fiscal stance affect inflation expectations? Evidence for European economies
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Economic Analysis and Policy"
DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2020.09.010
Abstract: Abstract According to the fiscal theory of the price level, in a non-Ricardian regime, high public debt should lead to a price-level increase so as to fulfill intertemporal government budget constraint. Forward-looking agents should anticipate… read more here.
Keywords: inflation; inflation expectations; fiscal stance; public debt ... See more keywords
Inflation and cryptocurrencies revisited: A time-scale analysis
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DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2021.109996
Abstract: Abstract This letter revisits the time-series relation between cryptocurrency prices and forward inflation expectations. Using wavelet time-scale techniques, a positive link between cryptocurrencies and forward inflation rates is identified, focused on a brief period surrounding… read more here.
Keywords: time; time scale; inflation cryptocurrencies; inflation expectations ... See more keywords
Oil price dynamics and market-based inflation expectations
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DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2018.09.011
Abstract: We examine the link between oil prices and market-based inflation expectations in the United States. Using a Gaussian affine term structure model, we decompose the breakeven inflation into three components: the market-based inflation expectations, the… read more here.
Keywords: market based; based inflation; inflation expectations; inflation ... See more keywords
Understanding survey-based inflation expectations
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.07.003
Abstract: Survey based measures of inflation expectations are not informationally efficient yet carry important information about future inflation. This paper explores the economic significance of informational inefficiencies of survey expectations. A model selection algorithm is applied… read more here.
Keywords: understanding survey; based inflation; survey based; inflation expectations ... See more keywords
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.009
Abstract: Abstract We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater… read more here.
Keywords: impact covid; pandemic business; covid pandemic; inflation expectations ... See more keywords
Asymmetric inflation expectations, downward rigidity of wages, and asymmetric business cycles
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DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2019.04.014
Abstract: Household expectations of the inflation rate are much more sensitive to inflation than to disinflation. To the extent that workers have bargaining power in wage determination, this asymmetry in their beliefs can make wages respond… read more here.
Keywords: asymmetric inflation; rigidity wages; downward rigidity; inflation ... See more keywords
THE ANCHORING OF INFLATION EXPECTATIONS IN THE SHORT AND IN THE LONG RUN
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DOI: 10.1017/s1365100517000517
Abstract: This paper introduces structural VAR analysis as a tool for investigating the anchoring of inflation expectations. We show that US consumers' inflation expectations are anchored in the long run because macro-news shocks are long-run neutral… read more here.
Keywords: inflation; anchoring inflation; expectations short; inflation expectations ... See more keywords