New forecasting methods for an old problem: Predicting 147 years of systemic financial crises
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DOI: 10.1002/for.3184
Abstract: This paper develops new forecasting methods for an old and ongoing problem by employing 13 machine learning algorithms to study 147 years of systemic financial crises across 17 countries. Findings suggest that fixed capital formation is… read more here.
Keywords: methods old; new forecasting; years systemic; forecasting methods ... See more keywords
Adopting and improving a new forecasting paradigm
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Intelligence and National Security"
DOI: 10.1080/02684527.2021.1946955
Abstract: A large and growing body of research suggests that when it comes to forecasting, the process-oriented paradigm prevalent in the Allied intelligence community (IC) acts as a drag on forecasting accu... read more here.
Keywords: forecasting paradigm; adopting improving; improving new; new forecasting ... See more keywords