Ensemble optimisation, multiple constraints and overconfidence: a case study with future Australian precipitation change
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Climate Dynamics"
DOI: 10.1007/s00382-019-04690-8
Abstract: Future climate is typically projected using multi-model ensembles, but the ensemble mean is unlikely to be optimal if models’ skill at reproducing historical climate is not considered. Moreover, individual climate models are not independent. Here,… read more here.
Keywords: overconfidence; precipitation; climate; future australian ... See more keywords
The impacts of dual overconfidence behavior and demand updating on the decisions of port service supply chain: a real case study from China
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Annals of Operations Research"
DOI: 10.1007/s10479-018-3095-5
Abstract: In this paper, the impacts of dual overconfidence behavior and demand updating on the decisions of port service supply chain are studied with the real case study method. A port service supply chain consists of… read more here.
Keywords: overconfidence; port; dual overconfidence; overconfidence behavior ... See more keywords
Pride before the fall: (Over)confidence predicts escalation of public commitment
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Journal of Experimental Social Psychology"
DOI: 10.1016/j.jesp.2016.10.005
Abstract: In four studies we examined the effect of overconfidence on escalation of commitment in investment tasks. Study 1 (N = 105) revealed a positive relationship between overconfidence and decisions to escalate. In contrast, Study 2… read more here.
Keywords: overconfidence; escalation commitment; study; commitment ... See more keywords
Taking another perspective on overconfidence in cognitive ability: A comparison of self and other metacognitive judgments
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Journal of Memory and Language"
DOI: 10.1016/j.jml.2020.104132
Abstract: Abstract People are often overconfident in their own cognitive abilities. We investigated whether overconfidence extends to judgments from or about other people, and tested various competing theories of this relationship. Across six studies using various… read more here.
Keywords: overconfidence; another perspective; cognitive abilities; taking another ... See more keywords
Overconfidence Among Beginners: Is a Little Learning a Dangerous Thing?
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Journal of Personality and Social Psychology"
DOI: 10.1037/pspa0000102
Abstract: Across 6 studies we investigated the development of overconfidence among beginners. In 4 of the studies, participants completed multicue probabilistic learning tasks (e.g., learning to diagnose “zombie diseases” from physical symptoms). Although beginners did not… read more here.
Keywords: overconfidence; among beginners; little learning; dangerous thing ... See more keywords
Investor Overconfidence in Experimental Asset Markets across Market States
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Journal of Behavioral Finance"
DOI: 10.1080/15427560.2019.1692845
Abstract: Abstract This study explores how individual overconfidence adjusts after receiving extreme feedback that either supports or contradicts previous decision-making when buying or selling stocks. We find that highly contradicting feedback causes overconfidence to vanish as… read more here.
Keywords: experimental asset; overconfidence; investor overconfidence; asset markets ... See more keywords
Determinants of overconfidence bias in Indian stock market
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Qualitative Research in Financial Markets"
DOI: 10.1108/qrfm-03-2017-0015
Abstract: Purpose The purpose of this paper is to conduct an exploratory analysis of the demographic factors and investors’ characteristics, which cause changes in the extent of overconfidence level and its constituents among the individuals. Design/methodology/approach… read more here.
Keywords: investment; overconfidence; stock market; determinants overconfidence ... See more keywords
Personality traits as predictor of cognitive biases: moderating role of risk-attitude
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Qualitative Research in Financial Markets"
DOI: 10.1108/qrfm-10-2019-0123
Abstract: This study aims to examine that personality traits are associated with the investor’s ability to exhibit disposition effect, herding behavior and overconfidence. It also explores how risk-attitude can modify investor behavior by moderating the association… read more here.
Keywords: overconfidence; effect herding; personality traits; disposition effect ... See more keywords
Avoiding Overconfidence in Predictions of Residential Energy Demand Through Identification of the Persistence Forecast Effect
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2023 at "IEEE Transactions on Smart Grid"
DOI: 10.1109/tsg.2022.3198326
Abstract: Forecasting domestic electricity consumption is important for a wide range of modern power system solutions and smart applications that support network operation, grid stability, and demand-side management, most of which depend on robust and accurate… read more here.
Keywords: forecast effect; persistence forecast; overconfidence; effect ... See more keywords
Inventory Financing with Overconfident Supplier Based on Supply Chain Contract
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Mathematical Problems in Engineering"
DOI: 10.1155/2018/5054387
Abstract: Overconfidence is a universal psychological behavior. Overconfidence on demand awareness will have a significant impact on operation decisions. The supplier estimated the demand with excessive precision which influences the inventory financing decision-making deeply. We built… read more here.
Keywords: supplier; decision; overconfidence; supply chain ... See more keywords
How Does Overconfidence Affect Decision Making of the Green Product Manufacturer?
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DOI: 10.1155/2019/5936940
Abstract: Overconfidence is a universal and prevalent cognitive bias affecting decision making in operation management. In this paper, overconfidence is defined as a cognitive bias in which decision makers overestimate the accuracy of demand forecasting or… read more here.
Keywords: overconfidence; profit; manufacturer; decision making ... See more keywords