Statistical Response of ENSO Complexity to Initial Condition and Model Parameter Perturbations
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DOI: 10.1175/jcli-d-24-0017.1
Abstract: Studying the response of a climate system to perturbations has practical significance. Standard methods in computing the trajectory-wise deviation caused by perturbations may suffer from the chaotic nature that makes the model error dominate the… read more here.
Keywords: enso; response; model parameter; parameter perturbations ... See more keywords
Calibration of parameter perturbations for ensemble prediction using data-consistent inversion
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DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-24-0032.1
Abstract: Parameter perturbations are an attractive way to represent model errors in an ensemble prediction system due to their ability to target precise sources of uncertainty. However, most parameters do not have a linear impact on… read more here.
Keywords: data consistent; ensemble prediction; consistent inversion; parameter perturbations ... See more keywords
Evaluating Stochastic Parameter Perturbations in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of Lake-Effect Snow
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DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-24-0141.1
Abstract: Lake-effect snowstorms can produce large snowfall accumulations that are challenging to simulate and forecast. One source of forecast uncertainty for these events is the uncertain parameterization of sub-grid processes, such as planetary boundary layer and… read more here.
Keywords: effect; permitting ensemble; stochastic parameter; lake effect ... See more keywords