Social media, political uncertainty, and stock markets
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting"
DOI: 10.1007/s11156-020-00870-4
Abstract: This study proposes a new measure of firm-level uncertainty exposure around important political events. More specifically, we construct a degree of (dis)agreement among social media users who jointly mention firms and politicians. We study a… read more here.
Keywords: social media; political uncertainty; media political; uncertainty stock ... See more keywords
Political Uncertainty and Investment: Causal Evidence from U.S. Gubernatorial Elections
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Journal of Financial Economics"
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2016.01.034
Abstract: I examine the link between political uncertainty and firm investment using U.S. gubernatorial elections as a source of plausibly exogenous variation in uncertainty. Investment declines 5% before all elections and up to 15% for subsamples… read more here.
Keywords: gubernatorial elections; uncertainty; political uncertainty; investment ... See more keywords
Asset prices, midterm elections, and political uncertainty
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Journal of Financial Economics"
DOI: 10.1016/j.jfineco.2021.03.007
Abstract: Abstract This study attests to the important role of US midterm elections in asset pricing, even more important than presidential elections. In months following the midterms, equity premiums, mutual fund flows, and real investment growth… read more here.
Keywords: midterm elections; prices midterm; uncertainty; asset ... See more keywords
The role of political ties and political uncertainty in corporate innovation
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Long Range Planning"
DOI: 10.1016/j.lrp.2021.102111
Abstract: Abstract: We examine the relationship between firms’ political connections and corporate innovation in a European context. We also consider the moderating effect of political connections on the relationship between political uncertainty and firms’ innovation. We… read more here.
Keywords: corporate innovation; political uncertainty; political connections; uncertainty ... See more keywords
Negotiating under Political Uncertainty: National Elections and the Dynamics of International Co-operation
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "British Journal of Political Science"
DOI: 10.1017/s000712341600051x
Abstract: This article explores if (and how) national elections affect the chances of concluding an international agreement. Drawing on a literature about the informational efficiency of elections, it examines how political uncertainty in the run-up to… read more here.
Keywords: political uncertainty; dynamics international; negotiating political; uncertainty national ... See more keywords
Political uncertainty, risk of Frexit and European sovereign spreads
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Applied Economics Letters"
DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2017.1391991
Abstract: ABSTRACT Using data from a prediction market (crowd-based forecasts), we build a daily measure capturing the risk of Frexit related to the 2017 French presidential elections. We study how unexpected changes in this new measure… read more here.
Keywords: sovereign spreads; risk frexit; uncertainty; political uncertainty ... See more keywords
Political uncertainty and the US market risk premium
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Managerial Finance"
DOI: 10.1108/mf-03-2020-0132
Abstract: PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the bi-directional causality between political uncertainty and the market risk premium in the US.Design/methodology/approachI use a theoretical model to motivate signs and then check signs based on… read more here.
Keywords: market risk; risk premium; political uncertainty;