Keeping a weather eye on prediction markets: The influence of environmental conditions on forecasting accuracy
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DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2018.04.005
Abstract: Increasingly, prediction markets are being embraced as a mechanism for eliciting and aggregating dispersed information and providing a means of deriving probabilistic forecasts of future uncertain events. The efficient market hypothesis postulates that prediction market… read more here.
Keywords: accuracy; eye prediction; prediction markets; prediction ... See more keywords
Optimizing the liquidity parameter of logarithmic market scoring rules prediction markets
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DOI: 10.1108/jm2-06-2017-0066
Abstract: Purpose Prediction markets are techniques to aggregate dispersed public opinions via market mechanisms to predict uncertain future events’ outcome. Many experiments have shown that prediction markets outperform other traditional forecasting methods in terms of accuracy.… read more here.
Keywords: parameter; prediction markets; market; liquidity parameter ... See more keywords
Designing Prediction Markets to Achieve Convergence Speed
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DOI: 10.4186/ej.2018.22.4.177
Abstract: The aim of this paper is twofold: to propose the model of artificial prediction markets that capture the characteristics of real prediction markets and to study the impact of key parameters on the performance of… read more here.
Keywords: designing prediction; prediction markets; prediction; convergence speed ... See more keywords