Predictive Bayesian selection of multistep Markov chains, applied to the detection of the hot hand and other statistical dependencies in free throws
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DOI: 10.1098/rsos.182174
Abstract: Consider the problem of modelling memory effects in discrete-state random walks using higher-order Markov chains. This paper explores cross-validation and information criteria as proxies for a model’s predictive accuracy. Our objective is to select, from… read more here.
Keywords: statistical dependencies; markov chains; predictive bayesian; dependencies free ... See more keywords
Posterior Predictive of Bayesian Vector Autoregressive (BVAR) and Adjusting Transformation on the Spatio Temporal Disaggregation Method: Predict Hourly rainfall data at the outsampled Locations
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DOI: 10.18187/pjsor.v15i2.2651
Abstract: This research is a development from previous research that has studied the method of spatio temporal disaggregation with State space and adjusting procedures for predicting hourly rainfall based on daily rainfall (Astutik et al, 2013).… read more here.
Keywords: predictive bayesian; spatio temporal; temporal disaggregation; hourly rainfall ... See more keywords