The usefulness of oil price forecasts—Evidence from survey predictions
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Managerial and Decision Economics"
DOI: 10.1002/mde.2916
Abstract: This paper evaluates survey forecasts for crude oil prices and discusses the implications for decision makers. A novel disaggregated data set incorporating individual forecasts for Brent and Western Texas Intermediate is used. We carry out… read more here.
Keywords: price forecasts; survey; oil price; usefulness oil ... See more keywords
Fuzzy Model Applied in Risk Perception and Price Forecasts…
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DOI: 10.1007/s40815-019-00651-9
Abstract: This study applies a fuzzy model to simulate an evolution of price forecasts among market investors based on their own risk perception and other multiple criteria decision. According to this imitation, we design a capital… read more here.
Keywords: fuzzy model; price forecasts; risk perception; price ... See more keywords
Behavioral uncertainty and the dynamics of traders’ confidence in their price forecasts
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control"
DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.01.020
Abstract: By how much does the presence of behavioral uncertainty in an experimental asset market reduce subjects' confidence in their price forecasts? An incentivized interval forecast elicitation method is employed to answer this question. Each market… read more here.
Keywords: confidence; behavioral uncertainty; price forecasts; confidence price ... See more keywords