Probabilistic forecasting in infectious disease epidemiology: the 13th Armitage lecture.
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Statistics in medicine"
DOI: 10.1002/sim.7363
Abstract: Routine surveillance of notifiable infectious diseases gives rise to daily or weekly counts of reported cases stratified by region and age group. From a public health perspective, forecasts of infectious disease spread are of central… read more here.
Keywords: infectious disease; age; forecasting infectious; epidemiology ... See more keywords
Online probabilistic forecasting method for trapezoidal photovoltaic stream data
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Journal of Power Electronics"
DOI: 10.1007/s43236-021-00302-z
Abstract: For the probabilistic forecasting of photovoltaic generation, the design of a feasible online predictive framework is a challenging problem. To deal with this issue, an ensemble dynamic OS-ELM based on quantile estimation has been proposed.… read more here.
Keywords: online probabilistic; forecasting method; probabilistic forecasting; photovoltaic ... See more keywords
Abatement of atmospheric pollutant emissions with autonomous shipping in maritime transportation using Bayesian probabilistic forecasting
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2021 at "Atmospheric Environment"
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2021.118593
Abstract: Abstract This study examines the potential abatement of environmental pollutant emissions with the adoption of autonomous vessels in future maritime transportation using Bayesian probabilistic forecasting algorithm. The emission reductions can be attributed to the related… read more here.
Keywords: pollutant emissions; probabilistic forecasting; using bayesian; maritime transportation ... See more keywords
Probabilistic Forecasting with Temporal Convolutional Neural Network
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "Neurocomputing"
DOI: 10.1016/j.neucom.2020.03.011
Abstract: We present a probabilistic forecasting framework based on convolutional neural network for multiple related time series forecasting. The framework can be applied to estimate probability density under both parametric and non-parametric settings. More specifically, stacked… read more here.
Keywords: temporal convolutional; convolutional neural; probabilistic forecasting; neural network ... See more keywords
Probabilistic forecasting of high-resolution clear-sky index time-series using a Markov-chain mixture distribution model
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Solar Energy"
DOI: 10.1016/j.solener.2019.04.014
Abstract: Abstract This study presents a Markov-chain mixture (MCM) distribution model for forecasting the clear-sky index—normalized global horizontal irradiance. The model is presented in general, but applied to, and tested on, minute resolution clear-sky index data… read more here.
Keywords: clear sky; probabilistic forecasting; model; mcm model ... See more keywords
Probabilistic Forecasting of Sensory Data With Generative Adversarial Networks – ForGAN
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "IEEE Access"
DOI: 10.1109/access.2019.2915544
Abstract: Time series forecasting is one of the challenging problems for humankind. The traditional forecasting methods using mean regression models have severe shortcomings in reflecting real-world fluctuations. While new probabilistic methods rush to rescue, they fight… read more here.
Keywords: forecasting sensory; probabilistic forecasting; generative adversarial; adversarial networks ... See more keywords
Day-Ahead Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Photovoltaic Power Generation Based on the LSTM-QRA Ensemble Model
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "IEEE Access"
DOI: 10.1109/access.2020.3021581
Abstract: With the rapid growth of photovoltaic (PV) power in recent years, the stability of system operation, the performance of system contingency analysis as well as the power quality of the power grid are threatened by… read more here.
Keywords: nonparametric probabilistic; probabilistic forecasting; power; model ... See more keywords
Direct Quantile Regression for Nonparametric Probabilistic Forecasting of Wind Power Generation
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "IEEE Transactions on Power Systems"
DOI: 10.1109/tpwrs.2016.2625101
Abstract: The fluctuation and uncertainty of wind power generation bring severe challenges to secure and economic operation of power systems. Because wind power forecasting error is unavoidable, probabilistic forecasting becomes critical to accurately quantifying the uncertainty… read more here.
Keywords: wind power; power generation; probabilistic forecasting; power ... See more keywords
Probabilistic Forecasting of Surface Ozone with a Novel Statistical Approach
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2017 at "Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology"
DOI: 10.1175/jamc-d-16-0110.1
Abstract: AbstractThe recent change in the Environmental Protection Agency’s surface ozone regulation, lowering the surface ozone daily maximum 8-h average (MDA8) exceedance threshold from 75 to 70 ppbv, poses significant challenges to U.S. air quality (AQ)… read more here.
Keywords: surface ozone; ozone mda8; probabilistic forecasting; forecasting surface ... See more keywords
Probabilistic Forecasting of Thunderstorms in the Eastern Alps
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2018 at "Monthly Weather Review"
DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-17-0366.1
Abstract: A probabilistic forecasting method to predict thunderstorms in the European Eastern Alps is developed. A statistical model links lightning occurrence from the ground-based ALDIS detection network to a large set of direct and derived variables… read more here.
Keywords: forecasting thunderstorms; model; probabilistic forecasting; eastern alps ... See more keywords
Probabilistic forecasting of replication studies
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2020 at "PLoS ONE"
DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0231416
Abstract: Throughout the last decade, the so-called replication crisis has stimulated many researchers to conduct large-scale replication projects. With data from four of these projects, we computed probabilistic forecasts of the replication outcomes, which we then… read more here.
Keywords: data sets; replication studies; heterogeneity; forecasting replication ... See more keywords