Promoting the use of probabilistic weather forecasts through a dialogue between scientists, developers and end‐users
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society"
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3482
Abstract: Funding information Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research, a network of universities, research institutes and the Deutscher Wetterdienst, and funded by the BMVI (Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructures). Today’s ensemble weather prediction systems… read more here.
Keywords: use probabilistic; end users; developers end; scientists developers ... See more keywords
Reply to Bracher: Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912694116
Abstract: Evaluating probabilistic forecasts in the context of a real-time public health surveillance system is a complicated business. We agree with Bracher’s (1) observations that the scores established by the US Centers for Disease Control and… read more here.
Keywords: public health; bracher scoring; reply bracher; probabilistic forecasts ... See more keywords
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
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DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2113561119
Abstract: Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in… read more here.
Keywords: ensemble probabilistic; evaluation individual; probabilistic forecasts; individual ensemble ... See more keywords
Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows
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DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2203822119
Abstract: Significance Accurate forecasts of migration trends are essential for effective migration policies. We develop a method for probabilistic forecasting of international migration flows between pairs of countries. Our model encodes the observation that the spatial… read more here.
Keywords: bilateral migration; international bilateral; probabilistic forecasts; migration flows ... See more keywords