Promoting the use of probabilistic weather forecasts through a dialogue between scientists, developers and end‐users
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society"
DOI: 10.1002/qj.3482
Abstract: Funding information Hans Ertel Centre for Weather Research, a network of universities, research institutes and the Deutscher Wetterdienst, and funded by the BMVI (Federal Ministry of Transport and Digital Infrastructures). Today’s ensemble weather prediction systems… read more here.
Keywords: use probabilistic; end users; developers end; scientists developers ... See more keywords
Generating probabilistic forecasts from arbitrary point forecasts using a conditional invertible neural network
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DOI: 10.1007/s10489-024-05346-9
Abstract: In various applications, probabilistic forecasts are required to quantify the inherent uncertainty associated with the forecast. However, many existing forecasting methods still only generate point forecasts. Although methods exist to generate probabilistic forecasts from these… read more here.
Keywords: point forecasts; point; arbitrary point; probabilistic forecasts ... See more keywords
Reply to Bracher: Scoring probabilistic forecasts to maximize public health interpretability
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2019 at "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.1912694116
Abstract: Evaluating probabilistic forecasts in the context of a real-time public health surveillance system is a complicated business. We agree with Bracher’s (1) observations that the scores established by the US Centers for Disease Control and… read more here.
Keywords: public health; bracher scoring; reply bracher; probabilistic forecasts ... See more keywords
Evaluation of individual and ensemble probabilistic forecasts of COVID-19 mortality in the United States
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2022 at "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2113561119
Abstract: Significance This paper compares the probabilistic accuracy of short-term forecasts of reported deaths due to COVID-19 during the first year and a half of the pandemic in the United States. Results show high variation in… read more here.
Keywords: ensemble probabilistic; evaluation individual; probabilistic forecasts; individual ensemble ... See more keywords
Probabilistic forecasts of international bilateral migration flows
Sign Up to like & getrecommendations! Published in 2022 at "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America"
DOI: 10.1073/pnas.2203822119
Abstract: Significance Accurate forecasts of migration trends are essential for effective migration policies. We develop a method for probabilistic forecasting of international migration flows between pairs of countries. Our model encodes the observation that the spatial… read more here.
Keywords: bilateral migration; international bilateral; probabilistic forecasts; migration flows ... See more keywords