A Stochastic Parameter Perturbation Method to Represent Uncertainty in a Microphysics Scheme
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DOI: 10.1175/mwr-d-20-0077.1
Abstract: Current state-of-the art regional numerical weather forecasts are run at horizontal grid spacings of a few kilometers, which permits mediumto large-scale convective systems to be represented explicitly in the model.With the convection parameterization no longer… read more here.
Keywords: stochastic parameter; parameter; uncertainty; perturbation method ... See more keywords
Evaluating Stochastic Parameter Perturbations in Convection-Permitting Ensemble Forecasts of Lake-Effect Snow
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DOI: 10.1175/waf-d-24-0141.1
Abstract: Lake-effect snowstorms can produce large snowfall accumulations that are challenging to simulate and forecast. One source of forecast uncertainty for these events is the uncertain parameterization of sub-grid processes, such as planetary boundary layer and… read more here.
Keywords: effect; permitting ensemble; stochastic parameter; lake effect ... See more keywords