Estimating real‐world probabilities: A forward‐looking behavioral framework
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DOI: 10.1002/fut.22248
Abstract: This document shows that disentangling sentiment-induced biases from fundamental expectations significantly improves the accuracy and consistency of probabilistic forecasts. Using data from 1994 to 2017, 15 stochastic models and risk-preference combinations are analyzed and in… read more here.
Keywords: world probabilities; real world; forward looking; world ... See more keywords